Trevor Miller

With a near free-fall in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia housing sales will plunge 23 per cent this year, according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), and the projected 2019 recovery will be led by centres outside of the Lower Mainland, particularly in the Kamloops region and the north.

In Metro Vancouver, the real winners in 2019 will be existing residential landlords who can expect high demand, less competition and low vacancy rates, based on Western Investor’s analysis for its annual residential investment outlook.

Despite a 35 per cent plunge in Lower Mainland housing sales this year, home prices remain the highest in Canada while rising mortgage rates will also help to keep buyers sidelined. As of October there were more than 20,000 homes for sale through the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, up 42 per cent from a year earlier, as sales cratered in both markets. Yet the composite benchmark home price in the Lower Mainland is $995,000 – nearly twice as high as the national average and up 2.9 per cent from October 2017, according to the REBGV. The benchmark detached-house price, now at $1.28 million, is down 2.7 per cent from the same period last year.

B.C. will welcome 59,300 new residents this year and another 61,000 in 2019, more than 90 per cent of whom will move into the Lower Mainland. The majority of the newcomers will be renters, because Metro Vancouver has the least affordable homes in Canada, based on home prices and incomes, according to both the Royal Bank of Canada and Zoocasa Realty Inc.

The BCREA is forecasting that, after falling to 80,000 sales this year, total residential transactions through provincial real estate boards will increase 12 per cent in 2019 to 89,500 units.

Source: By Frank O’Brien, Western Investor | November 26, 2018

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Housing supply ample as buyers remain hesitant

SURREY, BC – The slowing of sales activity and expansion of overall inventory that has defined much of 2018 for the Fraser Valley housing market continued in September, with sales at their lowest point and inventory at its highest for the year.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,035 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, a decrease of 36.1 per cent compared to the 1,619 sales in September of last year, and a 10.4 per cent decrease compared to sales in August 2018.

Of those 1,035 sales, 376 were residential detached homes, 250 were townhouses, and 274 were apartments. This was the lowest number of transactions in a month this year for each category.

“Buyers remain reluctant as the market continues to adjust,” said John Barbisan, President of the Board. “We’re seeing good things happening in terms of inventory, but it only opens the door so much while prices are moving at a much slower rate.”

Active inventory for the Fraser Valley in September finished at 7,647 listings, increasing 4.2 per cent month-over-month and 30.6 per cent year-over-year. This is the highest level of supply for the Fraser Valley since July 2015.
A total of 2,946 new listings were received by the Board in September, a 14.4 per cent increase from that received in August 2018, and a 3.4 per cent increase compared to September 2017’s intake.

“If you want to sell soon, the most important thing you can do to be successful is to price effectively. Talk to your REALTOR® who can help you understand what buyers are looking for in your local market.”

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell an apartment in September was 33, and 32 for townhomes. Single-family detached homes remained on the market for an average of 39 days before selling.

HPI® Benchmark Price Activity

• Single Family Detached: At $988,900, the Benchmark price for a single-family detached home in the Fraser Valley decreased 2 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 1.1 per cent compared to September 2017.

• Townhomes: At $546,100, the Benchmark price for a townhome in the Fraser Valley in the Fraser Valley decreased 0.4 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 9.5 per cent compared to September 2017.

• Apartments: At $438,700, the Benchmark price for apartments/condos in the Fraser Valley decreased 1 per cent compared to August 2018 and increased 22.5 per cent compared to September 2017.

More info:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201809.pdf

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